NEW DELHI/MUMBAI: India is likely to experience a hotter-than-normal summer this year, with the number of heatwave days between March and May expected to exceed the seasonal average, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) warned on Saturday.
The forecast raises concerns not only for public health but also for the country’s vital agricultural sector, particularly for winter-sown crops like wheat that are currently maturing.
Key Forecast Highlights
Presenting the outlook, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director-General of the IMD, stated that above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country during the upcoming summer season.
- Heatwave Days: “Above-normal heatwave days are expected over most parts of the country during March to May 2026,” Mr. Mohapatra said.
- March Temperatures: In March, the first official month of the summer season, minimum temperatures are projected to remain above average across most areas.
- February Recap: This follows a February that was already unusually warm. According to IMD data, February 2026 was the fifth-warmest February since records began in 1901, with both maximum and minimum temperatures above average.
Potential Impact on Crops
The forecast has significant implications for India’s agriculture. Winter crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas are planted from October to December and require relatively cool conditions throughout their growth cycle for optimal yields.
Above-average temperatures in March could affect the grain size of maturing winter-sown crops, potentially reducing overall yields, according to a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house.
India is the world’s second-largest wheat producer and the biggest importer of edible oils. The country has been counting on bumper 2026 crops to enable the export of surplus wheat and to cut down on costly imports of palm, soy, and sunflower oils. An unseasonal heatwave could jeopardize these targets.
Looking Ahead
The IMD’s seasonal outlook serves as an early warning for both disaster management authorities and the farming community. With the likelihood of more intense and frequent heatwaves, preparations for heat action plans in vulnerable regions and advisories for farmers will be crucial in the coming weeks.
