As the conflict in West Asia escalates following U.S.-Israel military strikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory attacks, the focus has rightly been on oil prices and global security. But for India, there is another, more human dimension to this crisis: the fate of millions of its citizens who work in the Gulf region.
With Iranian missiles targeting U.S. bases in the UAE and other Gulf nations, and the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to commercial shipping, the livelihoods of a vast Indian migrant workforce—and the billions of dollars in remittances they send home—are now at risk.
The Scale of India’s Migrant Presence
Emigration clearances, mandatory for Indians seeking work in designated countries (including the Gulf), offer a reliable snapshot of labour flows into the region. Between 2021 and 2025, over 17 lakh (1.7 million) Indians received such clearances for Gulf-bound work.
| Country | Share of Emigration Clearances (2021-25) |
|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 41% |
| UAE | 24% |
| Kuwait | 12% |
| Others (Qatar, Oman, etc.) | 23% |
These figures represent new clearances, not the total number of workers already abroad, meaning the total Indian migrant population in the Gulf is significantly higher. A large proportion of these workers are engaged in blue-collar jobs in construction, healthcare, hospitality, and tourism.
The Remittance Lifeline
Remittances from Indians working abroad are a crucial source of foreign exchange for the country. Data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) highlights the critical role of the Gulf nations, particularly the UAE.
| Source Country | Share of India’s Inward Remittances (2023-24) |
|---|---|
| United States | ~23% (Top source) |
| UAE | 19.2% (Second largest) |
| Saudi Arabia | 6.7% |
| Kuwait | 3.9% |
| Qatar | 4.1% |
| Oman | 2.5% |
The UAE’s share has actually increased from 18% in 2020-21 to 19.2% in 2023-24, underscoring its growing importance.
Which Indian States Are Most Exposed?
Remittance inflows are not distributed evenly across India. A few states account for a disproportionate share, making them particularly vulnerable to any disruption.
| State | Share of Total Remittance Inflows (2023-24) |
|---|---|
| Maharashtra | 20.5% |
| Kerala | 19.7% |
| Tamil Nadu | 10.4% |
| Telangana | 8.1% |
| Karnataka | 7.7% |
These five states alone account for over 66% of all remittance inflows into India.
The Immediate Threat: A Region on Edge
The conflict has already regionalized sharply. Iran’s retaliatory strikes have targeted U.S. bases and energy infrastructure across the Gulf, leading to:
- Shutdown of Qatar’s LNG facilities at Ras Laffan and Mesaieed.
- Shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery and export terminal, one of the world’s largest oil processing facilities.
- Effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping.
This last point is critical. The Strait is a chokepoint through which nearly a fifth of the world’s oil passes. Its closure threatens not just global fuel supplies, but the entire economy of the Gulf region, potentially leading to widespread job losses among the migrant workforce.
What This Means for Indian Workers
A prolonged conflict could impact Indian migrant workers in several ways:
- Job Losses: Economic disruption and project halts could lead to layoffs, particularly in construction and oil-related sectors.
- Salary Disruptions: Companies facing cash flow issues may delay or default on salary payments.
- Remittance Decline: Even if workers keep their jobs, uncertainty and bank disruptions could slow the flow of money back to India.
- Evacuation Pressure: As seen with the immediate special flights being operated by Air India, IndiGo, and others, a larger-scale evacuation may become necessary if the situation deteriorates further.
The human and economic stakes for India are enormous. While emergency evacuations have begun, the long-term impact on the livelihoods of millions and the billions of dollars they send home will depend on how long the conflict lasts and how deeply it scars the Gulf’s economy.
