New classified US intelligence assessments have suggested that Iran’s missile network remains largely intact, challenging the Trump administration’s earlier claims that Tehran’s military has been severely degraded amid the West Asia conflict.
The intelligence reports come as the US–Iran conflict entered its 75th day on Thursday, with ceasefire negotiations still showing little progress. A brief period of relative calm has been reported around the Strait of Hormuz, following days of intermittent clashes.
Key findings of the intelligence assessment
According to The New York Times, which reviewed the assessments, Iran has regained operational control over the majority of its missile facilities, including sites, underground storage complexes, and mobile launch systems.
One of the most closely watched findings indicates that 30 of Iran’s 33 missile installations along the Strait of Hormuz are now considered usable to varying degrees. This level of accessibility raises continued concerns for maritime security, particularly for naval vessels and commercial oil traffic moving through the narrow and strategically vital waterway.
Only some installations along the Hormuz corridor are believed to be fully non-operational.
Iran’s remaining military capabilities
Across broader Iranian territory, intelligence agencies estimate that Iran continues to operate roughly 70 per cent of its mobile missile launchers and has preserved a similar share of its pre-conflict missile stockpile. That arsenal includes longer-range ballistic missiles as well as shorter-range cruise missiles capable of striking regional land and sea targets.
Separately, surveillance data drawn from satellite imagery and other monitoring systems indicates that Iran has regained partial or full access to nearly 90 per cent of its underground missile storage and launch facilities nationwide. These sites are now assessed as largely functional, though with varying levels of operational capacity.
The reports further suggested that Iran retains the ability to reposition mobile missile launchers between facilities and, in some cases, conduct launches directly from prepared infrastructure within those sites.
Contrast with Trump administration’s claims
The assessments stand in contrast to repeated public statements by President Donald Trump and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, who have described Iran’s military capability as heavily degraded.
When asked about the findings, a White House spokesperson reiterated the administration’s position that Iran’s military capacity had been effectively neutralised, arguing that claims of recovery were exaggerated or politically motivated. The spokesperson also pointed to recent remarks by Trump dismissing suggestions of Iranian military resilience.
A Pentagon spokesperson sharply criticised media reporting on the intelligence material, accusing outlets of mischaracterising US operations and undermining what officials have described as a successful campaign against Iranian military infrastructure.
Ceasefire still elusive
With the conflict now in its 75th day and little progress on ceasefire negotiations, the intelligence assessment suggests that Iran retains significant military options. A fragile calm around the Strait of Hormuz may not hold if diplomatic efforts continue to stall.
